Big Week In the Big 10
Week Seven certainly shook up the AP top 25 rankings both at the top, with LSU’s statement win over Florida catapulting them into the no 2 slot, while at the other end where there were four new entries – well three and a re-entry as Washington limped back in to keep the PAC 12’s minuscule hopes alive. Actually the PAC 12 features two all ranked matchups this week and both Oregon & Utah could sneak back into the playoff conversation with wins and a bit of help above them. But being brutally honest the games are of more relevance to the Rose Bowl than the National Championship. However, the Big 10 is a different matter with their all ranked tie featuring Penn State who are the fringe 6-0 team at the moment sitting at seven. A win over Michigan would give them a second consecutive win over a ranked team and keep the pressure on Ohio State – who they face on 23rd November.where
In SEC play Georgia has the chance to bounce back from last weeks disappointment with a home game against Kentucky. The Wildcats may feel the backlash from last weeks shock. LSU, Auburn & Florida all have tricky conference road trips but they should prevail to keep the divisions interesting well at last for another week.
In the Group Of Five Conferences the main focus will be on SMU who are looking to go to 7-0 for the first time since the 1980s, they scraped home last week and won’t find things any easier this week against Temple. Still a win in this one would really make the pollsters take notice. Fellow ranked AAC Cincinnati also have the chance to keep the pressure on with what should be a fairly routine home game, while Boise who currently holds the at large bid face a tricky trip to BYU. That Cotton Bowl place is still up for grabs. However, of us at least the main interest is in seeing if Appalachian State can build on last weeks big Sun Belt win at Louisiana. They entertain UL Monroe this week, who ironically took over from Louisiana at the top of the Sun Belt West after their loss. Beating divisional leaders two weeks running should give them a little bounce.
Just outside the top 25 we will be watching Tulane who are sitting nicely poised at 5-1 with their only loss being at no. 11 Auburn. They have a tough road game with Memphis, however, a win in that should see them enter the top 25 and also enter them into at large bid conversation. Making the Cotton Bowl would be the first time since 1939 that they would have played in a New Year Bowl game.
Anyway here are our predictions for this weeks top 25 match ups.
No 4 Ohio State @ Northwestern +28
The Buckeyes are 4 TD favourites, which seems a lot given they have played quite well in their last two games. Ohio State will win but might not cover the spread.
Buckeyes to win but not cover.
No 3 Clemson @ Louisville +24
Clemson came back from their bye week and eradicated all memories of that narrow win against UNC. They put a quite a beatdown on Florida State and QB Trevor Lawrence had a good night with 3 TDs. Louisville lost to Florida State earlier in the season but have won their last two, including last weeks crazy 62-59 win at Wake Forest. They will do well to keep this within the spread.
Clemson to win and cover the spread.
No 11 Auburn @ Arkansas +19.5
No SEC road game is easy, and Arkansas have kept it within one score in their last three defeats. Auburn should win this one but might not cover.
Auburn to win but not cover.
No 9 Florida @ South Carolina +5
A 6-1 team playing a conference rival who is 3-3 wouldn’t normally give you a lot of cause for thought result wise, however, South Carolina are on a two-game winning streak and beat Georgia last time up. Still having watched the highlights of the game I would imagine if it was played again the result would be different and Florida even in that loss to LSU looked +5 impressive defensively. The Gators are still very much alive in the SEC title race and should win this, however if they lose things would get very interesting – where do you put a three-loss team who have just beaten two top 10 ranked ones?
Florida to win and cover the spread.
Purdue @ No 23 Iowa -17.5
Iowa’s unbeaten start is now a distant memory, but they played tough in both their losses (both one-score games) and they should get back on track in this one. Purdue are not having a good year and they may struggle to get bowl eligible, however, they did hold Minnesota to 7 points in that loss so making them 17.5 point underdogs might be just a little rich.
Iowa to win but not cover the spread.
No 6 Wisconsin @ Illinois +31
Illinois are on a four-game slide but did at least make the score look respectable against Michigan last week with a late flurry. Still, they couldn’t run the ball in that one so heaven help them against the Wisconsin defense who are allowing an average of only 44.7 rushing yards per game! Wisconsin are a defensive powerhouse this season and if we were making the polls (reminder to self lets start our own) we would place them at No 4 given they have pitched four shut outs and beaten some decent teams on the way to 6-0. Shocks do occur in the college game but its hard to see it happening here and we expect their Running back Jonathan Taylor to further push his Heisman credentials with a big game.
Wisconsin to win and cover the spread.
West Virginia @ No 5 Oklahoma -33.5
The Sooners are genuine playoff contenders and are currently averaging over 621 yards of offense per game! They should take care of WVU with the minimum of fuss but nearly 5 TDs is a lot to give on the spread and we think they might struggle to cover.
Oklahoma to win but not cover the spread.
Temple @ No 19 SMU -7.5
SMU are 6-0 and although they are not ahead of Boise in the AP rankings winning out would most likely send them to the Cotton Bowl. They made hard work of getting past Tulsa last time out (Triple OT) and Temple are a better team. The Owls edged past Memphis last time up to give them a second win over a ranked opponent, however they are not as good on the road as that loss at Buffalo exemplifies. We think the SMU dream can continue for at least another week.
SMU to win and cover the spread
Tulsa @ No 21 Cincinnati -17.5
Tulsa gave SMU a bit of a game two weeks ago but returned to their more normal form against Navy losing by four TDs. The Bearcats have played pretty well all year and you can forgive the shut out they suffered against Ohio State. Their defense is good & QB Desmond Ridder is playing well enough to win them games. They should have no trouble moving on to 6-1.
Cincinnati to win and cover the spread.
No 12 Oregon @ No 25 Washington +2.5
A few weeks back we thought that Washington’s loss at Stanford had pretty much ended the PAC 12’s chances of getting a team into the playoffs, give it removed Oregon’s last chance of a statement win. Well, we still stand by that despite this being an all ranked clash now. Why? Well as we wrote earlier this week we don’t think Washington should be ranked at this stage with two bad losses. We would put them behind 5-1 Tulane whose solitary loss was against Auburn, and if we were going to rank a two-loss team it would be Iowa State who’s losses have been by a combined 3 points against No 18 Baylor and No 23 Iowa. Now, that’s a strong two-loss resume. We think that Washington will edge this anyway making this a moot point.
Washington to win straight up.
No 20 Minnesota @ Rutgers -28.5
Not too much to say here Minnesota are 6-0 and played their best game of the season so far last week against Nebraska, while Rutgers have lost their last 5 games by a combined score of 195- 23!
Minnesota to win and cover the spread.
UL-Monroe @ No 24 Appalachian State -15.5
Appalachian State are once again deservedly in the rarified atmosphere of the top 25 thanks to an unbeaten start, which has included a win at a Power Five team (UNC). They are heavy favourites in this one despite playing the team who are top of the Sun Belt West. We expect the Mountaineers to win but they might struggle to cover the spread.
Appalachian State to win but not cover
No 2 LSU @ Miss. State +18.5
LSU has the best win resume in the FBS so far, having beaten Texas & Florida. They also put a five TD+ beating on Utah State, who is one of the better group of five teams too and they should win this one with some ease. Miss State has a decent run game, but are struggling a bit otherwise and although 18.5 points is a lot to give up in an SEC road game we expect the Tigrs to cover.
LSU to win and cover the spread.
No 22 Missouri @ Vanderbilt +21
Missouri started the season with a horrible loss at Wyoming, but have since strung five good if not spectacular wins together. Vanderbilt are not good this year and are the type of team the Tigers have been beating, so this should go with the ranked team. However, making Missouri 3 TD favourites looks a bit rich to us.
Missouri to win but not cover the spread.
No 18 Baylor @ Oklahoma State -4
We will know if Baylor is for real after this one, and despite them being the ranked team they start as underdogs. They showed a lot of grit last week to beat Texas Tech in double OT and also have pretty impressive wins over Iowa State & Kansas State. The key to the game is likely to be whether the Baylor defense can stop Chuba Hubbard who leads the FBS in rushing, having piled up 1,094 yards already! On form lines Baylor should have the edge, however, they looked like a team who’s luck was due to run out last week and this time we think it will.
Oklahoma State to win and cover the spread
Kentucky @ No 10 Georgia -24.5
Georgia needs to bounce back from last weeks shock loss to South Carolina, and this is as good an opponent to have as any. Kentucky had a great 2018 but have failed miserably this year and are missing the running yardage they got from Benny Snell last year. Georgia need to make a statement in this one to keep their fast-fading playoff hopes alive and we think they will.
Georgia to win and cover the spread.
No 17 Arizona State @ No 13 Utah -14
Arizona State are one of the surprise teams of 2019 and they will have the whole of Oregon supporting them in this as a win here would set up a winner takes all in the PAC 12 North and give one of them a final statement win heading into the Conference championship. However, Utah (who were our pre-season tip for the PAC 12 Championship will have lots to say about that. The Utes are also 5-1 with their loss coming in an error-strewn game at USC where they had enough chances to win but just couldn’t turn possession into points. We think they will win this one but two TDs is a lot to give up on the spread.
Utah to win but not cover the spread.
Kansas @ No 15 Texas -21
Not too much to say here other than a Texas loss would put a huge dent in the Big 12’s playoff hopes ( and not look too good for LSU either). Texas should not only win but cover the spread with something to spare.
Texas to win and cover the spread.
No 16 Michigan @ No 7 Penn State -7.5
The Big 10 is still surprisingly open and Michigan are not out of it yet, despite their beat down to Wisconsin. They have Notre Dame coming up after this one and still have to play Ohio State so winning out and taking the Big 1o championship might still be enough. Can they do it,- probably not and we think their hopes will end tonight as Penn State are looking stronger with every passing game. This one could be close though.
Penn State to win but not cover the spread
Tennessee @ No 1 Alabama -34.5
This should be an easy win for Alabama but they may have their minds more on the forthcoming LSU game than on running up the scoreboard. Still, Tennessee has been pretty bad so far.
Alabama to win and cover the spread.
No 14 Boise State @ BYU +7.5
Boise currently holds pole position in the group of five’s at large bid. However, they do play better at home and outside of that win at Florida State to open (which looks less impressive every week that passes), they have not really beaten anyone of note. BYU, by comparison, has had a pretty tough schedule going 2-2 in Power Five play and although they have lost their last two both have been one-score games. This is a banana skin game for Boise and we think they may slip up.
BYU to win straight up
