Wisconsin Drops The Ball – Literally
Another week and another big upset, as fast-rising Wisconsin proceeded to fumble away their chance of pushing for a top-four spot. The Badgers pretty much dominated in every stat that mattered against Illinois apart from penalties, turnovers and points as they lost a game that they should have had sewn up by half time. As Georgia found to their cost last week not doing the simple things well can cost you big time. Otherwise, the Big 10 had a good night with Penn State winning the nights big game, while Minnesota moved on to 7-0 for the first time since 1960, when they won the National Title – is this an omen? Probably not as the meat of their schedule starts in two weeks time when Penn State comes to visit. Still, a 13-0 Gophers would have to be in the conversation.
In the Group of Five, SMU continued to win moving on to 7-0 for the first time since the 1980s, and with Boise losing they are in poll position for that Cotton Bowl berth. They have a tough game coming up on the road to Houston on a short week. Appalachian State stayed in contention with their first-ever win as a ranked team. They are 6-0 and have a nice win over North Carolina. They also have a trip to South Carolina still to come which if the won it would give them a second Power Five win. Still a way to go but would an unbeaten Appalachian State & SMU be worth of two at large places?
The surprise results over the last two weeks and some less than impressive ones by other top teams means that the playoff picture is still pretty mixed. Overall we could make a case for 14 teams (let’s not include the Group of Five ones as there is no way the BCS will let one in), and despite us writing the PAC 12 off a couple of weeks ago we could put forward a scenario where either the Ducks or Utes sneak in. It would need a lot of things to go right, but after seeing Georgia & Wisconsin lose in back to back weeks who knows?
Anyway we struggled a bit with our predictions against the spread last week, going 17-4 straight up but only 9-12 ATS.
AP Top 25 Results
No 6 Wisconsin @ Illinois +31
Illinois 24 – Wisconsin 23
If you have watched the video above you will agree that a comedy of errors would be the best way to describe what is probably the biggest upset in FBS so far this season. Wisconsin came into this one near 5 TD favourites, on the back of some outstanding defensive performances which had included four shut outs in six games. Despite not playing particularly well the Badgers had a 20-7 lead late in the third and a FG attempt to make it a two-score game. Anyway, they missed it and Illinois cut the lead to 6 on the next play. Anyway, to cut a long story short Wisconsin turned the ball over twice in the final few minutes and the Fighting Illi took full advantage winning the game with a Field Goal as time expired. Illinois QB Brandon Peters only had nine completed passes in the whole game and 17 of their points came off of turnovers. Wisconsin Running Back Jonathan Taylor had another big night with 123 yards, however, the performance was marred by that costly fumble. Illinois snapped a four-game losing streak win this one and suddenly they have the chance of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2014.
No 4 Ohio State @ Northwestern +28
Ohio 52 – Northwestern 3
A no-fuss win for the Buckeyes who have cruised to 7-0. They ran the ball 37 times in what might be preparation for a sterner test against Wisconsin next week. Right now though a playoff place is firmly in their hands. Northwestern has issues at QB and Aidan Smith looks in line to be benched after only putting up 42-yards passing. Stats like this are ok against mediocre teams
No 3 Clemson @ Louisville +24
Clemson 45 – Louisville 10
Clemson like the Buckeyes above put this one away with the minimum of effort. If there was any concern for Clemson it was Trevor Lawrence throwing another two interceptions, thats eight in seven games and he is only averaging 210 yards per game passing. The rest of the schedule is quite soft, but the playoffs games won’t be.
No 11 Auburn @ Arkansas +19.5
Auburn 51 – Arkansas 10
Auburn got back on track with a comfortable win over their SEC rivals. Arkansas defense played quite well in the first half but tired late on, and they got scant support from their offense who turned the ball over 4 times. With Alabama & LSU still on the schedule, it’s hard to see the Razorbacks getting bowl eligible this year.
No 9 Florida @ South Carolina +5
Florida 38 – South Carolina 27
Florida got a crucial divisional win to set up what looks like being a winner takes all match up with Georgia in a couple of weeks. South Carolina no doubt buoyed by their win over Georgia last week kept this one close until a costly third-quarter fumble gave the Gators a short field and an easy 7 points. A late Florida TD made the game look easier than it actually was. The Gators know now that winning out and securing the SEC championship will most likely put them in the playoffs, while South Carolina needs three more wins to get a Bowl Slot.
Purdue @ No 23 Iowa -17.5
Iowa 26 – Purdue 20
Iowa stopped the slide but looked anything but emphatic and they only led 19-13 late in the fourth quarter before a TD put their minds at rest. Purdue snatched a last consolation TD in the last few seconds. This will no be impressive enough to bump the Hawkeyes up too much and their chances of making the Rose Bowl or any other New Year Game looks slim.
West Virginia @ No 5 Oklahoma -33.5
Oklahoma 52 – WVU 14
The Sooners win was as emphatic as the scoreline suggests with QB Jalen Hurts having a 5 TD night (leading the game in both passing and Rushing yards). He did his Heisman chances no harm in this one and you could make a case for them being ranked ahead of Clemson in that last playoff slot.
Temple @ No 19 SMU -7.5
SMU 45 – Temple 21
SMU moved into pole position for a tilt at the Cotton Bowl with an emphatic win over a good Temple side. QB Shane Buechele had a night to remember with 6 TDs and 427 yards passing. SMU has two tough road games back to back now facing Houston on Thursday night and then going to Memphis. Going undefeated looks a tall order but for now, the dream continues. Temple had a disappointing night being held to 69 yards rushing and although their feint hopes of figuring in the Cotton Bowl conversation have now gone they should pick up another win soon to ensure they play in a nice bowl game.
Tulsa @ No 21 Cincinnati -17.5
Cincinnati 24 – Tulsa 13
The Bearcats made hard work of this, needing a late TD to finally put it away. Tulsa had more yards overall, more first downs and more possession, however, you cant expect to win on the road when you turn the ball over 5 times! Cincinnati is now nicely placed to take advantage of any slip up by n SMU in the race for the at large bowl slot, and are on course to meet them in the AAC championship.
No 12 Oregon @ No 25 Washington +2.5
Oregon 35 – Washington 31
Oregon kept their playoff hopes alive with a narrow come from behind win. Justin Herbert had a good night with 280 yards passing and 4 TD’s. He still only has one interception on the year and he is very much in the Heisman hunt. Washingtons hopes of making a fourth consecutive New Years Day Bowl game are over now and finishing the season ranked in the top 25 looks a tall order.
No 20 Minnesota @ Rutgers -28.5
Minnesota 42 – Rutgers 7
Minnesota cruised to 7-0 with a solid all-round performance against an admittedly poor Rutgers side. Although most eyes will be on the scoreboard Minnesota’s defense deserves some credit for their three interceptions and holding Rutgers to 48 yards passing. The Golden Gophers at 7-0 is technically in the playoff hunt, but their schedule has been pretty weak, still, if they were to win against Penn state Iowa Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship…
UL-Monroe @ No 24 Appalachian State -15.5
Appalachian State 52 – UL-Monroe 7
Congratulations Appalachian State. This was their first-ever win as a ranked team and are by far the class of the Sun Belt. At 13-0 would they have a tilt at the playoffs? not a chance, however if two group of five teams went undefeated then there would be an argument for both to get a slot. The problem would be that they would both be in the Cotton Bowl as the other non-semi final ones have conference tie ins. I bet the Committee are hoping at least one of them loses.
No 2 LSU @ Miss. State +18.5
LSU 36 – Miss. State 13
LSU had another statement night with Joe Burrows throwing for 327 yards and 4 TDs, while their defense forced three TOs. With two top 10 wins, you could put forward a cogent argument for the Tigers being ranked No1 at this stage. Miss State are now in danger of missing out on a Bowl game for the first time since 2009.
No 22 Missouri @ Vanderbilt +21
Vanderbilt 21 – Missouri 14
Vanderbilt got their second win of the season thanks to a fourth-quarter TD from back up QB Riley Neil. Missouri came into this one strongly fancied, and on a 30+ point-scoring streak, however their offense never really got going and their stay in the top 25 will be short-lived. Still, they only need another win to get bowl eligible.
No 18 Baylor @ Oklahoma State -4
Baylor 45 – Oklahoma State 27
Well, Baylor are for real, although this win was not as clear cut as the scoreboard would suggest. OSU led this one early in the Fourth Quarter, before Baylor reeled off three unanswered TDs in the last 10 minutes. this was by far their best win and things are nicely set up for the decisive meetings with Oklahoma & Texas in November.
Kentucky @ No 10 Georgia -24.5
Georgia 21 – Kentucky 0
The Bulldogs bounced back from last weeks shock loss with a nice shut out win over Kentucky in a defense dominated game. All the points came in the second half and the decisive score came from a Kentucky fumble. Neither team were at their best in this one and the win probably wond be enough to propel Georgia back into the top 10. Kentucky now has to focus on getting Bowl eligible again ad the try to make it four appearances in a row.
No 17 Arizona State @ No 13 Utah -14
Utah 21 – Arizona State 3
Utah won the big PAC 12 clash to keep their playoff, but more likely Rose Bowl hopes alive. They still trail USC in the South on the head to head and will need a bit of help from either ASU or Oregon to make the Conference final. Utah leaned heavily on their defense in this one and ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a night to forger amassing 25 yards passing.
Kansas State @ No 15 Texas -21
Texas 50 – Kansas State 48
A crowd of 97,137 saw Texas avoid an embarrassing defeat thanks to a last-second field goal, in a thrilling game where neither defense gained any credit. The offenses between them put up 1207 yards and both QB’s had over 300 yards passing and 4 TD’s. This will be a big blow to the Longhorns who needed a big win to keep their hopes of getting back into the top 10 alive. Scraping past a team with a loss at Coastal Carolina on their resume will not muster many votes with the Playoff committee when the time comes.
No 16 Michigan @ No 7 Penn State -7.5
Penn State 28 – Michigan 21
The Game of the night lived up to the hype with both sides putting on a show, and Michigan will look back on Shea Patterson poor decision in the first half which led to an interception and a Penn State Score. Overall the Wolverines had enough of the ball to win this one but its Penn State who march on to 7-0. Michigan plays Notre Dame next week at the Big House, knowing that a loss in that one will pretty much end their season.
Tennessee @ No 1 Alabama -34.5
Alabama 35 – Tennessee 13
Alabama marched on but didn’t look all that impressive especially after Tua Tagovailoa went out. He has apparently undergone surgery so will be out for a while. Tennessee played fairly well without ever looking like winning the game and they are now pretty much resigned to not making a bowl game in 2019.
No 14 Boise State @ BYU +7.5
BYU 28 – Boise 25
BYU held off a late Boise rally to register their third win of the year, and in doing so keep their hopes of making the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. As for Boise, this is a big blow to their at large hopes and they will have to hope that a few results go their way over the next couple of weeks.
So that’s another six ranked losses. There will be a few changes in the top 25 again this week.
Racking them up
Outside of the top 25, the honours on the scoring front goes to:
Liberty 59 Maine 44
An entertaining clash between an FBS Independent and an FCS side Maine. Liberty had this one pretty much sewn up by the third quarter leading 52-17 before they took their foot off the gas.
Airforce is also worth a mention thanks to their 56 -26 win over Hawaii. Got to feel for Hawaii’s QB Cole McDonald who did his part putting up 404 yards and scoring 4 TD’s. Unfortunately, their defense gave up 353 yards rushing.
Entertaining Game of the Week
The six OT clash (yes 6 OTs ) clash between Virginia Tech & North Carolina takes some beating if only because we got to see the new OT rules in play which involves 2 point tries if they cant settle it in four normal attempts. Well after two lots of missed field goals and a missed two-pointer each the crowd finally got to go home when VT ran one in.
Performance of the Week
Hard to look past Illinois first win over a ranked team since 2011, so we wont but will give an honourable mention to…
Oregon State 21 @ Cal 17
The beavers were supposed to be the PAC 12 whipping boys this year but currently, they are sitting second in the division thanks to a late TD. The game was as close as it gets with both having 282 yards of offense and there only being a yard difference in passing. Hard to believe that Cal were ranked as high as 15 after four games.
One you might have missed
Wake Forest 22 Florida State 20.
Ok, Wake beating FSU is not the story it would have been a few years ago, but it leaves t6hem at 6-1 with a match up with Clemson to come. Yes I know this would be fantasy land, but how would the CFP committee handle Wake Forest beating Clemson then losing to Say Pittsburgh in the ACC championship. Would they leave an 11-1 Clemson out? or even consider a two-loss ACC champion Not going to happen but fun to think about.
Looking Good
Ball State 52 Toledo 14
After a patchy start, where they admittedly played some Power Five Teams, we suddenly see The Cardinals top of the MAC West, thanks in no small part to QB Drew Plitt who is having a career year with 1868 yards passing and 16 TD’s . They have a home game with Ohio next week and a win in that would put them in pole position for a tilt at the MAC Championship. Quite a step up for a four-win team last year.
Still Unbeaten
Two dropped off the list this week with Wisconsin and Boise suffering upset losses. We still have two from the Group of Five conferences which is nice to see.
In The AAC – SMU
In The ACC – Clemson
In The Big 12 – Baylor & Oklahoma
In The Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State & Minnesota
In The SEC – Alabama & LSU
In The Sun Belt – Appalachian State
Now 10 left. With none of them meeting next week and a few having bye weeks, we may still have twelve going into week nine.
Looking for a win
UTSA 31 – Rice 27
C-USA – Rice came close to breaking their duck this week, but a horrible final set of plays which ended with a fumble ensured that they moved on to 0-7.
New Mexico State had the week off so also remain at 0-7. Will either get a win this year? Well, New Mexico has an FCS game to come against Incarnate Word while Rice ends the year against UTEP (currently 1-5) so there is hope. Watch this space.
