The regular season ended with a bit of a bang as several teams blew their lingering CFP playoff chances. Nothing is officially settled until the Conference Championship games take place, however, it will take some tumultuous results to alter the final four now. We play a little bit of what if below but as it stands it looks like the final four are settled.
Outside the Power Five, the main interest was in the race for the Cotton Bowl place. This is now a straight shoot out aa there is no doubt the place will go to the AAC Champion. Coastal Carolina blew their ultra slim chance with a loss and with poor non-conference records the Mountain West champion was out of it weeks ago.
Anyway here are some of the weekend highs & lows…
The Winners
TCU are the big winner once again. They cruised past Iowa State to finish the regular season unbeaten and even a loss in the Conference Championship game probably won’t put them out. The same applies to Michigan who takes on Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. The Boilermakers won a tight battle for the Big Ten West clinching their spot with a comfortable final-day win.
TCU are now two wins away from clinching their first-ever CFP playoff place.
Image: JV Designs/shutterstock.com
The final place is currently held by USC whose win over Notre Dame will count big in the Committee’s eyes. Still, they will need to beat Washington in the PAC 12 Championship otherwise Ohio State will get the place.
Not So Good
LSU still had a slim chance going into the final week, but a bad loss to Texas A&M put pay to that. Given that the Aggies are not bowl-eligible this could put the Tigers out of contention for a New Year’s Bowl unless they pull an upset in the SEC Championship.
North Carolina’s season similarly ended with a whimper rather than a bang. They had an outside chance of a final four place at one stage, however, two consecutive losses might even put them outside of the top 25 by the season’s end. They still have a final chance at redemption in the ACC Conference Final and could still end up playing in the Orange Bowl.
Anyway here are the weekend’s top 25 results and a few others worthy of mention…
ACC
South Carolina 31 @ No.8 Clemson 30
Pittsburgh 42 @ Miami 16
For the second week running South Carolina played party pooper ending Clemson’s 40 home game winning streak and with it the Tiger’s slender CFP playoff hopes. Last week they effectively ended Tennesee’s hopes too so no one will be looking forward to facing the Gamecocks in a Bowl Game.
Miami who ranked 16 in the opening AP Poll won’t be going bowling this year finishing with a miserable 5-7 record.
Big Ten
No.3 Michigan 45 @ No.2 Ohio State 23
Nebraska 24 @ Iowa 17
Purdue 30 @ Indiana 16
Michigan State 16 @ No. 11 Penn State 35
Michigan are pretty much assured of a CFP place regardless of the outcome of the Big Ten Championship game. They will play Purdue there who edged out Iowa with their win at Indiana. They were helped big time though by Nebraska who pulled off a bit of a shock.
Penn State looks likely to get the second at-large place in the Cotton Bowl at least. They could even be going to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State gets the fourth CFP place. The Nittany Lions have had a pretty solid season but suffer from playing in the B10 East.
Big 12
Iowa State 14 @ No.4 TCU 62
Baylor 27 @ No.23 Texas 38
Kansas 27 @ No.12 Kansas State 47
TCU secured their place in the Conference Final with a blowout win over the Cyclones. They are on course for their best season ever if they get the better of Kansas State to finish 13-0. The Wildcats beat state rivals Kansas to edge Texas out.
PAC 12
No.15 Notre Dame 27 @ No.6 USC 38
No.9 Oregon 34 @ No.21 Oregon State 38
No.13 Washington 51 @ Washington State 33
USC took a huge step towards reaching the final four with a hard-fought win over a resurgent Notre Dame. Surprisingly they will play Washington in the Conference Final after the Huskies win in the Apple Cup. Oregon still had the chance to make the final and with it a tilt at the Rose Bowl. However, they blew a big lead against The Beavers who capitalised on three consecutive Oregon Turnovers (two on downs) to score 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points.
SEC
No.5 LSU 23 @ Texas A&M 38
LSU saved the CFP committee a potential headache with a surprise loss at Texas A&M. They are in the SEC Final and a win there would have had them as two-loss conference champions. Would that have triumphed a one-loss PAC 12 Champ or even Ohio State? Fortunately, that dilemma is now over. A three-loss team is not getting even if they are from the SEC!
Group Of Five Divisions
American
No.19 Tulane 27 @ No.24 Cincinnati 24
No.22 UCF 46 @ USF 39
Tulane capped a great season with a narrow win at The Bearcats. That not only guaranteed their spot in the Conference Final but also snapped Cincinnati’s 32-home-game winning streak. They will face the Black Knights who edged past USF. The Black Knights won at Tulane on the 12th of November so this one should be good. The winner is Cotton Bowl Bound.
C- USA
UTEP 31 @ 34 UTSA
Rice 17 @ 21 North Texas
Western Kentucky 32 @ Florida Atlantic 31
UTSA will play North Texas in the Conference Final. The Roadrunners looked like going into the final with a loss but a field goal with 4 seconds left capped a great comeback. North Texas got the win they needed to get the other place thanks to their head-to-head win over Western Kentucky.
Mid American
Bowling Green 14 @ Ohio 38
Ohio joined Toledo in the Mid-American final with a comprehensive victory in their winner takes all game against Bowling Green. .
Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina 7 @ James Madison 47
Troy 48 @ Arkansas State 19
Old Dominion 20 @ South Alabama 27
Coastal Carolina limped into the Sun Belt Final despite finishing second in the Sun Belt East. Why? Because James Maddison is ineligible due to them just moving up from the FCS level. Sadly they can’t play in a bowl game either which must be frustrating given there are currently not enough teams bowl-eligible to fill the slots.
Still Unbeaten
Only three managed to navigate the regular season with their records intact.
Big 12
TCU 12-0
Big Ten
Michigan 12-0
SEC
Georgia 12-0
CFP What If?
The Final Four now looks pretty much sorted, however, the four currently occupying the semi-final places still need to win. All are strong favourites however what if one or more were to lose? Well here is how it might look in the twilight zone – cue the theme tune…
Big 12
TCU loses to Kansas State
The Horned Frogs would be 12-1 with a win and a loss against the Wildcats. We think that the Committee might put Ohio State ahead of them in that eventuality on quality of loss.
Big Ten
Michigan loses to Purdue
A bad loss but would the committee put a 12-1 Michigan behind an 11-1 Ohio State? Probably not although there is a precedent with the Buckeyes once getting in ahead of Big Ten Champions Penn State despite losing to them in the regular season. Never forget how much the CFP panel loves the Buckeyes! A more likely scenario is the one below…
PAC 12
USC Loses to Utah
Ouch. Ohio State would be in ahead of an 11-2 Trojans no question.
SEC
Georgia Loses to LSU
Georgia would still be in and there is no way the committee puts a three-loss LSU in. Speaking of the SEC, could Alabama sneak in? No. No matter how much the Committee loves the Tide there would be eruptions if they got in even if complete carnage took hold.
So ends our look at week thirteen which was as we predicted unlucky for some. Join us next week for the conference finals.
You can check out our other 2022 Weekly Round Ups here
