CPF Rankings Alabama Out.
Week Twelve may not have the big ranked clashes of last week, however, it is in some ways more important as it sees the PAC 12’s top two teams playing tricky away games. Also in the Big Ten Minnesota has the chance to really push its playoff credentials with a road trip to Iowa- who are by far the best three-loss team in the FBS. Their combined losses have been by a total of 14 points, and their defense is really good. One can only imagine how good this side would have been had they still had last seasons Tight End pairing of T.J. Hockenson & Noah Fant, Both of whom were 1st round draft picks this year. A 10-0 Minnesota would be pushing for a top-four place. We will know if they are for real after this one.
It is also D-Day of sorts in the Big 12, with unbeaten Baylor entertaining Oklahoma. Right now the Big 12 is the most likely to be left out in the cold (assuming that the Big Ten or SEC don’t get more than one playoff place), and although it has five teams in the rankings the others are three-loss teams. Right now it’s far from certain an unbeaten Baylor would get in, although a one-loss Oklahoma probably would, given the CFP seem to favour historied programmes.
All Ranked Games
There are four all ranked games this week, however only one really has any chance of impacting the playoff places. Georgia who (to our mind anyway) are slightly surprisingly ranked ahead of Alabama, probably based on their two ranked wins rather than the quality of their loss, face a real test at No 12 Auburn. A win for Georgia would pretty much sew up their place in the SEC Conference Final, however, a loss could open the door to Florida. What is pretty certain is that a two-loss team is unlikely to make the playoffs this year so a loss will almost certainly end the prospect of two SEC teams in the final four.
The other important, if less meaningful ones are the aforementioned Oklahoma @ Baylor & Minnesota @ Iowa clashes. Again it’s just about possible that two Big Ten teams could make the final four, however, the Golden Gophers would most likely have to win out. As for the Big 12, their best chance would be for the Sooners to win out.
Notre Dame face Navy with both having a reason to play hard. Either could still make the Cotton Bowl as At Large teams, while the Fighting Irish also still have an outside chance at taking the ACC slot in the Orange Bowl.
On the Fringes
A few weeks back the PAC 12 looked dead and buried, however, Oregon & Utah have benefitted from the recent run of upsets, and despite not playing last week both have sneaked into the top ten. They have relatively (famous last words) straight forward home games this week and a meeting between the two in the Conference Final seems assured. Oregon has the “best loss” so if they win out who knows. We still think they will need a bit of help though. Overall we have it down to the remaining eleven Power Five no loss or one-loss teams and no matter how hard we try can’t see a scenario where the likes of Auburn or Florida sneak in.
The Race For The Cotton Bowl
The Group of Five Cotton Bowl place remains up for grabs with the AAC currently very much in pole position with Cinncinati Memphis & Navy all currently ranked. However, don’t go to sleep on SMU, they may have dropped out of the top 25, despite winning last week but they are 9-1 and still have to play Navy. It should come down to the last game in the AAC as Memphis and Cinncinati meet that week and the Mustangs could still edge into the Conference Final.
Boise State kept their hopes alive last week by scraping past Wyoming and they could still get the place if as is possible the AAC beats upon itself. A one-loss Broncos would most likely beat out a two-loss AAC Champion, especially given they have a nice win over Florida State on their Resume.
The final contender is Appalachian State, who has the best wins resume of all the contenders. Two road wins against Power Five teams is unprecedented in Sun Belt history and those wins were at UNC (who came within a point of beating Clemson) and South Carolina – who of course inflicted No 4 Georgias only defeat. So why (apart from them being in the unfashionable Sun Belt) are they not the leading contender? Well, their Bogey team struck again and for the second year in a row, Georgia Southern beat them as a ranked team. If they win out and they end up as the only ranked one-loss Group of Five Team then they should go to the Coton Bowl. A lot to ask but whatever it has been a tremendous season for them and they should gent a nice recruiting boost next year.
The Battle For Bowl Eligibility
Quite a few teams are only a win away from becoming bowl eligible and some will get there on Saturday.
ACC
Florida State, Louisville & Virginia Tech all have winnable games.
Big 12
Iowa State can become the 6th eligible, however, they have a tough game at home to Texas.
MAC
Eastern Michigan made it on Tuesday night – sending the Zips to 0-10 in the process, while Buffalo missed the chance to join them, blowing a 27-6 over Kent State. Kent State scored 24 unanswered points in the last 8 minutes!
Mountain West
Hawaii has a winnable game at UNLV – who are on a four-game losing streak and should get that 7th win they need (due to playing too many FCS sides) while Utah State will have a harder time at home to Wyoming.
Pac-12
Arizona State & California both had great starts but have faded of late. Both have tough games this week with ASU having to travel to Oregon State, while Cal entertains USC – who still have a chance at the PAC 12 Conference Final and a Rose Bowl spot. It would be a surprise if both made it Saturday and not too much of a shock if neither do.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State & Georgia Southern both have winnable home games, which should see both booking their travel arrangements in December. Georgia Southern getting Bowl Eligible would also give Appalachian State a nice boost too.
FBS Independents
BYU should clinch eligibility this week as they have a home game with FCS Idaho State, who are 3-7 in the Big Sky. They are assured of a nice trip on Christmas Eve to the Hawaii Bowl if eligible so they will be up for this one.
CFP Top 25 Games
Here is our predictions for the ranked games this week:
No 11 Florida @ Missouri +7
Florida Straight up and at the spread
No 5 Alabama @ Miss. State +17.5
Alabama Straight up and at the spread
Kansas @ No 22 Oklahoma State -17.5
Oklahoma State Straight up and at the spread
Indiana @ No 9 Penn State -14.5
Penn State Straight up but not to cover the spread
Michigan State @ No 15 Michigan -13.5
Michigan Straight up and at the spread
No 14 Wisconsin @ Nebraska +14.5
Wisconsin Straight up but not to cover the spread
No 23 Navy @ No 16 Notre Dame -7
Notre Dame Straight up and at the spread
Wake Forest @ No 3 Clemson -34.5
Clemson Straight up but not to cover the spread
West Virginia @ No 24 Kansas State -14
Kansas State Straight up but not to cover the spread
No 4 Georgia @ No 12 Auburn +3
Auburn Straight up
No 19 Texas @ Iowa State +7
Iowa State Straight up
No 18 Memphis @ Houston +10.5
Memphis Straight up but not to cover the spread
No 2 Ohio State @ Rutgers +52.5
Ohio State Straight up and at the spread
No 8 Minnesota @ No 20 Iowa -3
Iowa Straight up and at the spread
No 17 Cincinnati @ South Florida +14
Cinncinati Straight up but not to cover the spread
No 1 LSU @ Ole Miss +21.5
LSU Straight up and at the spread
No 10 Oklahoma @ No 13 Baylor +10.5
Oklahoma Straight up and at the spread
No 25 Appalachian State @ Georgia State +17
Appalachian State Straight up and at the spread
UCLA @ No 7 Utah +21.5
Utah Straight up and at the spread
New Mexico @ No 21 Boise State -28
Boise Straight up but not to cover the spread
Arizona @ No 6 Oregon -27.5
Oregon Straight up but not to cover the spread
Still Looking For A Win
Arkon have already lost this week at home to Eastern Michigan 42-14 and now sit ignominiously bottom of the FBS at 0-10. They might not be lonely for long though, as although NMS has a winnable game against an FCS team, Rice has to go to Middle Tennessee who are better than their 3-6 record indicates, given three of their losses have been to Power Five teams, including two who are currently ranked in the CFP top 25.
Incarnate Word (FCS) @ New Mexico State
The Aggies should get off the mark in this one against the Cardinals who are mid-table in the Southland Conference and come into this one on a three-game losing streak.
Rice @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee needs this one to keep their faint bowl hopes alive and are pretty good at home, with their only loss being to ACC Duke. They are 14.5 points favourites and although we doubt they will cover that they should send Rice to 0-10
