Last week’s top four all remained unbeaten meaning little change at the top. However, there is going to be a bit of a shakeout this weekend as one of Michigan or Ohio State has to lose and in doing so miss out on the Big Ten Championship game.
With this in mind, it looks like the CFP Committee has made a statement of intent by leaving LSU ahead of USC despite the Trojans having a better record. Thus if both win out it is probable that LSU will be joining Georgia in the final four. This would change if USC gets a win over Notre Dame this week but it still looks like SEC bias given the Tiger’s bad loss to Tennessee.
Speaking of Tigers, Clemson is now the only other team outside the top six with a chance of gatecrashing the playoffs. Their chances were hurt by North Carolina’s shock loss and will now need a few results to fall their way. A win for Notre Dame this week would be a huge help. That would not only end USC’s chances but also make their loss to the Irish look a whole lot better.
Ten Teams with Three Or More Losses Included!
We have been commenting on the lack of Group of Five representation since the committee put out their first rankings and once again it is a talking point. This week there are Ten teams with at least three losses and a couple with four! This shows the disdain the committee has for the Group of Five conferences as there is a strong case for the inclusion of the likes of Coastal Carolina who are 9-1 or even 9-2 UTSA.
There are three AAC teams included, however, two of these are on their way to the Power Five which does not bode well for this group. Maybe its time for a G5 championship game?
As we mentioned above suddenly LSU looks well placed to capitalise on any slip-ups, and there are still a lot of scenarios that could come into play. Here is our best guess as to what would happen if…
Georgia – Win one more game and they are in. Lose to Georgia Tech and beat LSU still in. Lose both well psssibly still in but other results would need to go their way.
Ohio State – Beat Michigan and they are in. Even a loss in the B10 Championship game probably wouldn’t be enough to keep them out. Lose to Michigan and they won’t be in the Conference final but at 11-1 with a loss to the Big-Ten Champions might be enough.
Michigan – Same scenario in reverse except that if Ohio State lost the Championship game they would be out.
TCU – Needs to win out. Any loss would put them out. The Committee would almost certainly take an 11-1 Buckeyes or Wolverines and they would probably fall behind a 12-1 Pac-12 0r ACC champ.
LSU – Win out and they are in. An SEC champion is not getting left out with two losses. Lose three though and they won’t get in.
USC – Win out and hope that TCU slips up or Georgia wins the SEC.
Clemson – Win out and hope that Notre Dame beats USC and either Georgia wins the SEC or TCU slips up.
A 12-1 ACC champ might not edge out a 12-1 USC, however, if Notre Dame were to beat them, who knows?
Anyway, the week’s rankings are below…
CFP Week 13 Rankings
1 Georgia 11-0
2 Ohio State 11-0
3 Michigan 11-0
4 TCU 11-0
5 LSU 9-2
6 USC 10-1
7 Alabama 9-2
8 Clemson 10-1
9 Oregon 9-2
10 Tennessee 9-2
11 Penn State 9-2
12 Kansas State 8-3
13 Washington 9-2
14 Utah 8-3
15 Notre Dame 8-3
16 Florida State 8-3
17 North Carolina 9-2
18 UCLA 8-3
19 Tulane 9-2
20 Ole Miss 8-3
21 Oregon State 8-3
22 UCF 8-3
23 Texas 7-4
24 Cincinnati 9-2
25 Louisville 7-4
Texas & Louisville
Oklahoma State & NC State
Big Ten 3
Big 12 3
The PAC 12s chances will be clearer this weekend a loss for USC and their championship game will be for the Rose Bowl Slot.
You can check previous CFP rankings here