One Unbeaten Team Less – Appalachian State Lose.
Week Ten seems like a bit of an anti-climax after last weeks theatrics, with only one all ranked clash and a lot of the top teams having a week off. However, although all eyes will be on next weeks featured SEC & Big Ten clashes its easy to miss the importance of some of these games, which could settle a few things.
One thing was decided last night with Appalachian State’s loss to Georgia Southern, and that is that we won’t be seeing a Sun Belt team in the Cotton Bowl for at least another year. The Mountaineers once again had no answer to the Eagles triple option. They had reached the heady heights of 20 in the AP top 25 rankings after stringing 13 wins together since ironically losing at Georgia Southern last year when ranked 25. In last nights other game, Baylor edged to 8-0 with a narrow win over WVU. This leaves their destiny in their own hands still but the result probably won’t impress the pollsters.
Anyway on to Saturday’s games, which is headed by the big SEC East clash between Georgia & Florida, which will most likely decide the destination of the divisional title and the all-important place in the Conference Final. Both have one loss but the Gators is somewhat less damaging given it was against LSU. Both could still make the playoffs but the loser is definitely out.
The currently slender chances of the PAC 12 making the final four could either end or get a huge boost on Saturday as both Utah & Oregon have important road games. A win for both would set up a Conference Final between the two of them, while a loss for either would pretty much end any lingering hope.
With Appalachian State losing last night the AAC has moved in to clear poll position for the at large place in the Cotton Bowl, although Boise State is still on the periphery. The AAC is still open going into the weekend’s games and if Navy win tonight, and unbeaten SMU were to lose at Memphis (which is a distinct possibility) the conference could have four one-loss teams with UCF still lurking just a game back.
The only other unbeaten team playing on Saturday is No 4 Clemson who entertain a good FCS side in Wofford. The Tigers are 33-0 all-time against FCS teams and it would be the upset of the decade if they were to lose this one.
AP Top 25 Games
No 14 Michigan @ Maryland Spread +21.5
The Wolverines are back on form and they will be eyeing the top 10 following last weeks demolition job on Notre Dame. The weather did play a part in that one, however, playing anywhere close to that level would see them cover the spread (ATS).
Prediction Michigan Straight up and ATS.
North Carolina State @ No 23 Wake Forest Spread -7.5
Wake Forest is quietly away having a nice season and had they resided in the ACC Coastal instead of the Atlantic they would be nicely placed for a place in the Conference Championship. They are 6-1 with their only loss being in that crazy shoot out with Louisville, and with home-field advantage, they should win this. They do tend to give up a lot of yards though so this could be close.
Wake Forest to win but not cover the spread
Virginia Tech @ No 16 Notre Dame Spread -17.5
Notre Dame will be desperate to rekindle their New Year Bowl hopes with a big win here, however, VT is not a bad team and although we can’t see them winning they should hold it to within the spread.
Notre Dame to win but not cover the spread
No 8 Georgia @ No 6 Florida Spread +6.5
The game of the night pitching these two high scoring divisional rivals in what will almost certainly decide the winner of the SEC East. Both have a solitary loss on their record with Florida’s being against LSU while Georgia somehow managed to lose to South Carolina in double overtime. We are slightly surprised at the size of the spread and given Kyle Trask has settled in nicely as fill-in QB for the Gators we are giving them the edge.
Florida to win straight up.
No 22 Kansas St. @ Kansas Spread +5.5
Playing a near neighbour is never easy however KSU beat Oklahoma last week to move into the rankings and should be at least a TD too good for Kansas.
Kansas State to win straight up and ATS
Wofford (FCS) @ No 4 Clemson Spread -46.5
Not much to say here other than Wofford did give Clemson a bit of a game back in 2011 leading 14-6 at one stage in the first half and holding them 21-21 at half time. Can lightning strike twice? No chance but whatever the result here they are likely to win the Southern and figure in the FCS playoffs.
Clemson to win and Cover The Spread
No 9 Utah @ Washington Spread +3
Utah needs to win this one to keep their Conference Championship (and minuscule playoff) hopes alive. A win for Oregon in the PAC 12’s other big game will put them in pole position for a crack at the Ducks in the Conference Final. Win that and who knows where they will end up. Washington was a little unfortunate against Oregon last week and they still need another win to become bowl eligible so this will be competitive. But the Utes defense looks really good s=and should get them through.
Utah to win and cover the spread
No 17 Cincinnati @ East Carolina Spread +24
Cincinnati can still win the AAC and their schedule is pointing to a meaningful clash with Memphis to end the season. ECU at 3-5 and with a tough remaining schedule look like missing out on a bowl game this year.
Cincinnati to win and cover the spread.
Ole Miss @ No 11 Auburn Spread -19.5
Auburn’s defense is top-notch and although QB Bo Nix has struggled against the better teams he should have no problem here. Ole Miss also has LSU to play so it looks like no bowl for them this year.
Auburn to win and cover the spread
No 15 SMU @ Memphis Spread -6
Is this where the Mustangs fairytale ends? They have ridden their luck (ok bad pun) and have been lucky to stay unbeaten against bot Houston & Tulsa. Sadly – as we all love to see a small school defy the odds we think their first loss comes here. However, that won’t end their Cotton Bowl chances as Memphis still has to go to Houston & play Cincinnati. The AAC is shaping up to have a very intriguing run-in. Memphis is 7-1thanks to a two-point loss to temple and have a nice win over Ole Miss in their opener, which was the only time this season they have scored less than 28 points.
Memphis to win and cover the spread
No 7 Oregon @ USC Spread +4.5
This is a doubly important game for Oregon, not only do they need the win to keep in the playoff hunt, but they also need Utah to win the Pac 12 South and meet them in the Conference Final to boost their strength of schedule. Of course, Utah currently trails USC on the head to head. We think they can do it and keep the Pac 12in the playoff hunt for at least another week.
Oregon to win and cover the spread
No 21 Boise St. @ San Jose State Spread +17
Boise is the class of the Mountain West and still have their eyes on that Group of Five Cotton Bowl place. They should win this one but whether they can cover the spread is a different matter. The 4-4 Spartans kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a narrow win over Army and have kept it close in all of their last four games.
Boise to win but not cover the spread
