AAC, Group of Five

2019 College Football Season Conference Predictions AAC

2019 College Football Season Conference Predictions AAC

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has been thrust into the public limelight over the last couple of seasons, thanks to the exploits of UCF who have gone 12-0 two years running and on the way picked up the Peach Bowl in 2017 and reached the Fiesta Bowl in 2018. Can they continue to dominate or will someone come out from the pack to take the conference? Here is our educated guess on the finishing positions.

American Athletic East

Can the Black Knights complete a hat trick of unbeaten Conference seasons?
Editorial credit: Jillian Cain Photography / Shutterstock.com

1st UCF Black Knights

UCF goes into 2019 ranked 17th in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll and although a third 12-0 season is probably asking a bit much they still look the best team in the AAC East and are assured a big bowl game again in 2019. They have had QB woes of late with first McKenzie Milton going down and then his stand in Darriel Mack Jr. goes and breaks his ankle! So welcome Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush who played ok for the Irish before losing his place to Ian Book.  He should thrive in this company and he won’t have to try and win by throwing the ball all the time as Greg McCrae and Adrian Killins are both running backs capable of taking some of the load. They are also returning 2018’s leading pass catcher Gabriel Davis.

The D-Line will miss DT Trysten Hill who went to Dallas in the 2nd round of the draft and the defensive front doesn’t look as good as it was last year even with the addition of Cam Goode who transferred from Virginia Tech. Still, the secondary has a few nice pieces back led by safety Richie Grant who had 6 interceptions last year.

The schedule is not great and the non – conference games could throw up a loss or two given there are road trips to FAU & Pittsburgh as well as a tough game against Stanford. If they come out of this 4-0 then another 12-0 is possible, however that looks unlikely, and they also have a couple of tricky conference road games, at Cincinnati & Temple, plus Houston & USF at home so the schedule is not weighted towards a clean sweep. Overall we cant see another unbeaten season but double-digit wins are possible and another bowl game looks assured.

Predicted Record 10-2

2nd Cincinnati Bearcats

Hands up who saw the Bearcats going 11-2 last year – thought not. A few teams always have a surprise break out and Cincinnati was one of them in 2018.  Helped admittedly by an easyish schedule ended up ranked in the top 25 by both AP & the Coaches and added their first Bowl win since 2012 beating ACC Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl. Head Coach Luke Fickell is going into his third year in charge and has QB Desmond Ridder back which is important given the loss of most of last-years O-Line and Kahlil Lewis will be a big miss. Still, their running game should be good again with Michael Warren II & Charles McClelland both back.

The defense is also a bit depleted on the line and replacing NFL bound Marquise Copeland and Cortez Broughton will not be an overnight job, but most of the secondary are returning so they should be above average. Whether that will be enough to challenge with this schedule though is a big question mark. Which brings us nicely to their biggest issue in 2019 – five really tough road games.

Last years losses came on the road and this time they have to go to Ohio State, Marshall, Houston, South Florida & Memphis – yikes. We can see at least three losses there and they also have UCF to play. The flip side is that with this schedule were they to go 12-0 then a playoff place wouldn’t be out of the question. Another bowl game beacons but back to back double-digit win looks a stretch.

Predicted Record 8-4

3rd Temple Owls

Temple has managed to get a new head coach finally after the Diaz fiasco and although new boss Rod Carey did a decent job at NIU he has not had much time to sort out his roster. Unlike his previous team the Huskies, in 2018 Temple had a decent passing game and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts his offensive style.  The Owls may have lost Ventell Bryant who is now in the NFL with the Bengals but they still have QB Anthony Russo and WRs Branden Mack and Randle Jones which is a good base to start from. Their top rushing talent has gone but they have a few guys who they can rotate in, and if they can stop turning the ball over then they should score (they had at least 30 points in seven games and over 40 in four).

Defensively they are bringing back six starters and were second in the AAC last year averaging 372 yards and 27 points per game. Losing Rock-Ya Sin at corner would hurt any secondary but they have struck lucky in getting Harrison Hand to transfer from Baylor. If they can fill the gaps in the D-Line then they could be a sneakily good team this year.

The schedule starts off favourably and apart from a tough trip to Buffalo the first six games shouldn’t prove too much of a problem. However thereafter it includes Memphis & UCF at home and then tough trips to USF & Cincinnati. Its hard to see them picking up too many wins from them and a similar record to last year looks on the cards.

Predicted Record 8-4

4th  USF Bulls

South Florida had the epitome of a season of two halves in 2018 – bouncing out to a 7-0 start admittedly on the back of an easy schedule, before losing their next six on the bounce including being literally trampled by Marshall in the Gasparilla Bowl. They had a few injuries last year and the lack of depth at QB is a worry with both Chris Oladokun and Brett Kean transferring out. Blake Barnett will be the starter, but he missed a couple of games last year and if he goes down again there is no experience behind him.  The Offense overall looks quite good with TE Mitchell Wilcox in the conversation for best TE in 2019 while RB Jordan Cronkrite, and WR Randall St. Felix both look set for big years. Now if only the defense can play their part.

Turning to the defense, well things must get better if they are going to go bowling again this year. They allowed an average of 447 yards and 32 points per game last year which ranked them a disappointing 104th and another year like that with this schedule will be a disaster. They are bringing back Seven starters, and fortunately, those coming back were quite good last year (mainly in the secondary). They will need to stop the run though and the line is a worry.

The schedule could have been worse, but USF tends to struggle against good teams and are likely to start the season with a couple of losses as they face Wisconsin and then have to travel to Georgia Tech. The good news is that the rest of the road schedule is not too taxing until the end of year showdown with UCF. November is the key as they should be 6-2 coming into a run of home games against Temple, Cincinnati & Memphis. Going 3-0 in those is a tall order and equalling last seasons record looks the most likely outcome.

Predicted Record 7-5

5th East Carolina Pirates

The Pirates were once one of the better AAC teams but the last few years have not been kind and they have had three straight 3-9 seasons and have not played in a bowl game since 2014 when they gave Florida a game in the Birmingham Bowl. They will be hoping new Head Coach Mike Houston can revive their fortunes, and he has the pedigree all be it at a lower level where he led James Madison to the FCS  National Championship in his first season and has left them with a 37-6 coaching record over the three years. As expected when moving to a 3-9 team there is not a lot to work with but QB Holton Ahlers looks like taking a step forward after being thrown in as a freshman last year. He even ended up leading rusher such was the dearth of talent on the Offense. If Trace Christian fulfils the glimmers of promise he showed last year in his limited opportunities last year and Wr Cam Burnett does the same then they will score more than their 20 points per game average last year.  The defense was not good in 2018 but did take a step up from 2017s performance and with seven starters back and a new defensive coordinator – Bob Trott also from  James Madison more progress is possible.

Schedule wise things don’t look too bad, with a couple of winnable FCS games and a trip to Old Dominion which should see three wins on the board early then there are four likely losses before a run-in of toss-up games at SMU & UConn and at home to Tulsa. Can they win those three? Quite possibly and we think that Mike Houston’s excellent first-year record coupled with having his old DC alongside might just be enough to see the Pirates going Bowling again.

Predicted Record 6-6

6th UConn Huskies

We will stick to the old adage here “that if you don’t have something good to say then don’t say anything” so this will be brief. The Huskies were almost historically bad last year on defence giving up at least 49 points in 10 of their games and they only kept it below 30 in one game – a loss to UMass! Not surprisingly they have a new defensive coordinator in Lou Spanos who can only make them better (cant he?)

QB David Pindell who was also their leading rusher has gone which is a big loss and there is little no experience at that position going into 2019. Still, Kevin Mensah is back and he along with the rest of the offense at least tried in 2018. The receiving corp is totally unproven with Zavier Scott who at least caught a few balls in 2018 having transferred out. This leaves Mason Donaldson as probable on one WR and he has had 33 catches in his career – although admittedly he missed all last year with an injury.

The schedule includes a winnable FCS game to open and then a couple of non-conference games against admittedly lesser Big Ten teams and they get UMass & Tulane on the road. Can they win either of these? Possibly so we expect an improvement on last year but not much of one.

Predicted Record 2-10 

American Athletic Conference West

Memphis Tigers

Is this the year that the Tigers step out of UCF’s shadow? Editorial credit: Aspen Photo / Shutterstock.com

1st  Memphis Tigers

Memphis finishing 8-6 last season doesn’t tell the full story of what was a pretty good season, one which with a bit of luck could have looked a whole lot different. Two one-point regular season losses including that thriller against UCF and a narrow 3 point loss in the Birmingham Bowl – to a last-minute TD pretty much summed up their luck, and who knows had they beaten UCF in the regular season they might not have had that fourth quarter collapse against them in the Conference Final. So can 2019 be the year they return to an NY6 Bowl?

Well, there are plenty of reasons on the offensive side of the ball to boost optimism. QB Brady White, WR Damonte Coxie and TE Joey Magnifico are all returning, and although last years leading RB Darrell Henderson has joined the NFL  they still have Patrick Taylor Jr. who amassed 1122 yards and 16 TDs last year; so no real worries there.

This is important as the Tigers were not that great on defense last year, giving up 30 points or more in half of their games and even allowing bad teams to score against them. Bryce Huff, Sr. can play almost anywhere on the line, however, unlike on offense standout players are not easy to spot. Still, a lot of last years starters were sophomores so they may make a step up this time around. Expect a lot of shoots outs again in 2019.

The schedule looks a bit easier too, with their only power-five opponent being Ole Miss, who they get at home and will probably be favourites for. Trips to Temple, Houston and USF are not given wins and they finish with an improving Cincinnati, however, they should amass enough  from these to take the division and get a revenge shot at UCF, who have beaten them in the last two conference finals.

Predicted Record 10-2

2nd Houston

The Cougars will have to get used to life without Ed Oliver this year and also have a new coach in Dana Holgorsen, having fired the previous incumbent Major Applewhite for having the audacity to only go 8-4! This could turn into a coaching carousel if they continue on that vein. Anyway, the defense will inevitably take a step back after losing an NFL 1st Round Draft Pick but Offensively they look great and QB D’Eriq King is as good as any in the conference and can run a bit too.  WR Marquez Stevenson should step up after a nice freshman year and Keith Corbin is back for his senior year too.  They also have  RB Patrick Carr who despite getting limited carries racked up 868 yards. Scoring points this year shouldn’t be an issue.

Defensively as well as losing the near unreplaceable Ed Oliver another host of starters are gone and this from a defense which was not that good (and that’s being kind). Not much more to say other than expect a lot of shoot outs this year.

The schedule looks tricky especially the non – conference slate with Big 12 favourites Oklahoma and a tough PAC-12 game against Washington State highlighting Houston’s ambitions. Two losses there are distinctly possible and a trip to North Texas is no given either. Going 2-2 in non-conference is probable. They have Cincinnati & Memphis at home, which is a bonus and their only true conference road test will be at UCF. Still, that’s a lot of tough games and winning nine would be an achievement. Will we be seeing another new head coach in 2020?

Predicted Record 8-4

3rd Navy Midshipmen

Navy had a dismal 2018 thanks to a big step back in their ground game. Can this change in 2019? well after last years experiment Malcolm Perry looks certain to be back at QB and although he won’t be throwing the ball much he is a great runner. If they can get back to basics and maybe throw the odd pass then last seasons record should be easy enough to eclipse.

The defense struggled on third down last year and have appointed a new defensive coordinator Brian Newberry who will be tasked with getting more of a pass rush going in 2019. Given they finished dead last in both sacks and tackles for loss last year he should improve things and they have some decent linebackers for this in Diego Fagot, Nizaire Cromartie and Jacob Springer.

The schedule has three tough aways including Notre Dame, however, UCF is missing from it and you can make a case for them winning most of their home games. If they can at least split away trips to UConn & Tulsa, they should be back in a bowl game.

Predicted Record 6-6

4th SMU Mustang

SMU just couldn’t get their offense right in 2018, often putting up yards but not turning them into points. They only scored more than 30 points on three occasions last year and one of those was against UConn, despite then QB Ben Hicks regularly racking up the passing yards. Anyway, he has left to join SEC Arizona for his senior year, and now the Mustangs will hope that Texas transfer Shane Buechele can replace his production. He will be helped by a trio of decent WR in James Proche who should be his No. 1 target on the outside, and Reggie Roberson & CJ Sanders should figure. The running game didn’t figure much last year and Braeden West is gone but Ke’Mon Freeman is back for his senior year and is capable of carrying the load – or at least what there will be of it in this pass-first offense.

The Defense Struggled against the run last year and although they have nine starters back we are not sure they can address this. If they continue with the same offense they will continue to see the defense getting worn down. If they are to have any chance at a bowl game they need to start getting third-down stops.

The Non – Conference schedule in 2019 is quite tough again with games against Arkansas State & North Texas who are likely to compete for the championship in their respective conferences and TCU who probably won’t but are still a decent Big 12 side. They will do well to be 2-2 going into conference play. Here trips to USF, Houston, Memphis & Navy, could end with three losses and that means to get bowl eligible they need to win three out of four at home. We think they can do that.

Predicted Record 6-6

5th Tulane Green Wave

Tulane had a good 2018 recovering from a 1-3 start to snatch a bowl berth with a gutsy 2pt conversion in the last two minutes in a1pt win over Navy in their final game. They went on to win the Cure Bowl with a dominating ground game – which was their hallmark last year. So what will 2019 bring?

Well, Justin McMillan is back for his senior year as is a number of other starters and they have added grad transfer Jalen McCleskey from Oklahoma State to the WR corp. Running backs Darius Bradwell & Corey Dauphine return too, but the O-Line needs rebuilding and that could hamper things.

The D-Line was young last year but still did the business and they look formidable Patrick Johnson, Cameron Sample & DeAndre Williams being the ones to watch. Unfortunately, the secondary doesn’t look so solid and only three starters return. They might struggle a bit against the better passing teams and the schedule is full of them in 2019.

Speaking of which brings us to why we think Tulane will take a small step back in 2019. The no conference is tough and outside of their game with FCS Missouri State, they are not certain to win any of them and at best look like going 2-2. They face Memphis, Navy, Temple & SMU on the road and then there are those home ties with Houston & UCF. We don’t see too many wins in that lot which leaves them sitting somewhere between 4 and 6 wins. We will go in the middle and expect them to be sitting at home in December.

Predicted Record 5-7

6th Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Tulsa was a three-win team last year, largely due to a Defense who couldn’t stop the run and with a pretty brutal Non – Conference Schedule couples with no easy home games beating that total looks a tall order.

The offense will probably be led by Seth Boomer who took over in October last year and did ok considering the line in front of him was not great and he lacked a true no 1 wide receiver. Keylon Stokes is back but he will have to improve massively if the passing game is going to improve. The running game was not great either, not helped by the O-Line and Corey Taylor II & Shamari Brooks will need to get more than the four and a bit yards per carry they averaged in 2018 if they are to have any success. A lot of things will need to improve if they are going to compete.

The Defense is bringing back nine starters which may not be that great given the pass rush was conspicuous by its absence in 2018. The secondary was quite good though and helped them keep it close at times. They lost 4 one-score games last year and only won one close one so with a bit more from the D-Line and a bit of luck they might turn that around.

The problem is the schedule with a Non-Conference slate where they will go 2-2 at best and their three home conference games are against Memphis, UCF & Houston. Throw in a trip to Cinnci and there are not a whole lot of winnable games left. Overall they could better last seasons record, but won’t be going bowling barring some lucky breaks and Head Coach Philip Montgomery might be on the hot seat.

Predicted Record 4-8

 

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