2021 was a historic year for the American Athletic Conference thanks to Cinncinati finally breaking the CFP glass ceiling. The Bearcats became the first Group of Five Conference team to reach the Playoffs and hopefully, this will continue in future years. A repeat in 2022 looks like a tall order, however, there are a few teams who have a chance at ranking in the top 25 and of course getting to a New Year Bowl.
There are half a dozen teams who will fancy their chances at getting bowl eligible at least and once again it should be an exciting conference to watch. Shame it will be the last time it is this strong as our predicted top three are all off to the Big 12 in 2023!
The Contenders
Houston looks to have a clear path to the AAC championship game and with a bit of luck, they could be 12-0 going into it. They avoid both Cincinnati and UCF in the regular season and have a host of starters returning. This is headed by Clayton Tune at QB and although the loss of star running back Alton McCaskill will hurt they should be able to rack up the points. Their defense is also on the up and although they have some tough conference road games we think they are the team to beat.
Cinncinati had a dream season in 2021 beating Norte Dame on their way to a 13-0 season. They become the first Group of Five team to make the CFP playoffs, but a lot of talent has gone. QB Desmond Ridder is now in the NFL along with their standout CB Sauce Gardner. In fact, an unprecedented nine players were drafted from the class of 2021. This will take some replacing!
Opening with a trip to Georgia is a boom or bust move. Win it and they are ranked No1, lose it and they are playing catch up. Following this with a game against a good FCS team is a hiding to nothing and then it’s BYU & Washington State. Their season could be pretty much over before September is out! Still, it gets easier thereafter.
UCF probably should have been the first G% team to make the CFP semis, however, their exploits in 2017 were sadly dismissed by the panel. They dropped off a bit when Scott Frost left for the supposedly greener pasture of Nebraska, however, they are on their way back. They have 13 starters returning and get both Cinncinati & SMU at home this year.
The Dark Horses
SMU had a great start to 2021 but then lost four of their last five. To cap it off their Bowl Game was cancelled and they have a new coach Rhett Lashlee. They have a few starters returning but would need to see their defense improve if they are to threaten the above three. Still, they should be good enough for eight wins and get to a nice bowl game.
We also think South Florida could surprise a few. The Bulls had a mediocre 2021, but have a lot of experienced players coming back. Most interesting though is the arrival of former Baylor starting QB Gerry Bohanon. If he can gel quickly with his new teammates the USF might get bowl eligible. That’s a quantum leap for a team that was 2-10 last year. It will also ensure that third-year head coach Jeff Scott stays in their job.
Fighting For Bowl Eligibility
East Carolina & Memphis both have tough schedules and finishing better than 6-6 looks a tall order. As for the other teams – getting above four wins looks a stretch.
AAC Predicted Finish
Houston 12-0
Cincinnati 10-2
UCF 9-3
SMU 8-4
South Florida 6-6
East Carolina 6-6
Memphis 6-6
Navy4-8
Tulane 4-8
Tulsa 3-9
Temple 2-10
AAC Champions?
Houston is our prediction beating Cinncinati in the final. There is no chance that they will get into the CFP playoffs given their strength of schedule even at 13-0. However, they will get to play in a nice NY Six Bowl game.
