AFC Divisional Game One Colts v Chiefs – AFC South v AFC West
This will be the fifth postseason meeting between these two franchises and the Chiefs will be hoping for a change of fortune given the Colts have won all four previous games, while the neutral would be happy with a repeat of 2013’s classic. This is also intriguing as it pits two of the leagues best 20 something quarterbacks in Andrew Luck – who after leading the Colts to several playoff appearances before being injured is now our comeback player of the year and Patrick Mahomes who in his second season has amassed 50 TD passes. To put this figure into perspective only multi supergoal winners and future Hall of fame shoo-in’s Tom Brady & Peyton Manning have previously achieved such a feat. So the neutrals hoping for a follow up to the Classic 2013 Wildcard game might just get their wish.
The Chiefs go into the game as narrow No 1 seeds having edged out the LA Chargers on divisional record while the Colts just edged in as no 6, half a game ahead of Pittsburgh, thanks to a great finish to the season. However, this didn’t stop them from knocking off divisional rivals Houston in the Wild Card game with some ease.
The Chiefs have a better record and are 7-1 at home, with that only loss coming in a crazy 29-28 defeat against the Chargers who scored a TD and 2 point conversion with 4 seconds left. They lost their next game against the Seahawks (who made the playoffs) and rounded off a nice 12-4 season by crushing the Raiders. They are 5 point favourites and this looks justified, although as you can see below history is not on their side
Past Post Season Games
1996 – Hardly a thriller at Arrowhead finishing 10-7 to the Colts and best remembered for the four Chiefs turnovers and Lin Elliott’s three missed field goals. It was also the only home loss for Kansas that season.
2003 – Colts won 38-31 at Arrowhead again – remarkably the game had no punts and only a single turnover, a fumble by Priest Holmes which led to points for the Colts.
2006 Indianapolis were never in trouble winning this one at home 23-8. The Chiefs only managed 126 total yards of offence and turned the ball over three times. Their defence did get three turnovers themselves but still gave up 435 yards.
2009 One of the best Wild Card games ever saw the Colts battle back from a 38-10 second-half deficit to win 45-44. This despite the Colts giving up four turnovers. With plenty of points and over 1000 yards of offence, this game will long live in the memory past being Andy Reid’s first postseason game in charge of the Chiefs.
Who will win
Well history may not be on the Chiefs side – and they have lost to an Andrew Luck lead team before, however, their losses this season have been to the Chargers who ended up 12-4 themselves and on the road at New-England by 3 points, at the LA Rams by 3 points and at Seattle by a TD in a game where they gave up +2 turnovers. The AFC West is the best in the NFL and losing to four playoff teams by a combined 14 points says it all. Unless they bottle it again they are justifiable favourites.
The Colts did finish the season strongly but their schedule was nothing by comparison and they even managed to lose to the Jags 6-0 in a game which showed that they can capitulate against a good defence. They also struggled against the Giants, winning in large part thanks to two late offensive penalties which left NY starting on their own 4-yard line deep in the fourth quarter. Had it not been for those two penalties they would probably not be here.
Overall we think that the Colts are a tad lucky to be here and our prediction is for a fairly comfortable Chiefs win.
Score Kansas City 38 Indianapolis 30
