American Football, Sport

Betfair Super Bowl Winner Market – Some Trading Observations

The Super Bowl Winner market on Betfair is one that I have actively traded, particularly through the off season for the last few years.  The liquidity in the market is fairly limited and trading it requires different tactics to high liquidity shorter term markets where trends develop quickly and bets get matched without much waiting.

There have been an unusual number of big trades and other headline grabbing personnel moves in the last month as free agency has started and teams start to build their rosters for the 2022 season.  Russell Wilson has been traded from the Seahawks to the Broncos, the troubled DeShaun Watson from the Texans to the Browns and, most recently, start wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs to the Dolphins.  Whatever your view of those trades from a fan perspective, the common result has been big market moves.

The Broncos went from a mark of around 28.0 to 14.0 before drifting out.  The Browns from 50.0 to 20.0 and the Dolphins from 60.0 in to 40.0.  Seattle went in the other direction from 60.0 to over 100 and the Chiefs have drifted sharply on the strengthening of division rivals in the AFC West and the loss of Hill and others (11.0 to 15.0).

While it is difficult to be onto the news quick enough to gain from these trades in the markets, it is possible to look ahead and to spot some potential future moves related to some of the trades above.

I have taken the following speculative positions:

Back the Seahawks – the team with only one losing season in the last 10 is currently priced on the basis of not having a recognised starting quarterback.  Pete Carroll is on record as saying that he does not want to oversee a total rebuild and it is a distinct possibility that the Hawks could look to take on a veteran QB before the start of training camp.  Baker Mayfield, who has requested a trade from Cleveland, is a mid level starting NFL quarterback when fit and could probably be obtained for modest draft capital.  Signing someone at the level of Mayfield should shift the price on the Seahawks down again allowing you to trade out for a profit.  

Lay the Browns – yes, DeShaun Watson is an outstanding quarterback and yes, he is an upgrade on Baker Mayfield, BUT there is no guarantee he will be available to the Browns at all for the upcoming season with 20+ civil law suites still hanging over his head and the strong possibility of him falling foul of the NFL personal conduct policy.  A relatively long suspension could still be in the offing and the Browns would end up having to effectively scramble through the season with a view to benefiting from Watson’s influence in 2023.  If that were to happen, the Browns would likely drift to a price higher than the 50.0 they were rated at with Mayfield at the helm.

DISCLAIMER – Trading is gambling and the above are my personal views and not guaranteed to win you money.  Don’t gamble more than you can afford to lose and take the time to learn to trade the sports markets before jumping in.

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