EFL Championship Prediction 2019-20

The Championship looks like being ultra-competitive again this season with a number of teams spending big in the hope of reaching the promised land of the Premiership – where the terraces ars supposedly paved with gold. Relegated Fulham who spent big, last year (to say the least) will be hoping to bounce back and may end up being the main challenger from the relegated clubs, however, they are not going to find it easy and several teams have a genuine chance this year. Anyway, this is how we see it finishing:

Championship Title Contenders

1st Leeds United

It’s hard to believe that Leeds United have been out of the Premier League for 16 seasons now and three of those were spent in League One thanks to the litany of financial management which plagued the club. They looked nailed on for promotion at Christmas last year, but a collapse in form and lack of depth in the squad told and they fell in the playoff semis to Derby. This seems to be a bit of a trend for Leeds who two years ago faded into seventh and even when they escaped League One back in 2009-10 they made their fans sweat despite looking certain champions early on.

Selling around £26m of your best players is not a good look for a team who want to go one better this year, however, they have managed to bring back their biggest sale Jack Clarke on loan from Spurs and have added some Premier League quality in Hélder Costa, Ben White, Jack Harrison & Eddie Nketiah. Just as importantly they have held on to holding midfielder Kalvin Phillips who adds that badly needed touch of defensive steel to an otherwise attack-minded squad. The lack of a proven goal scorer remains a worry although Nketiah may be a help here. If Roofe can stay fit and Bamford can find his form then Leeds could finally get back into the big time.

 

2nd West Bromwich Albion

West Brom adjusted well to being relegated last year and after finishing 4th with a credible 80 points were a tad unlucky to lose to eventual playoff final winner Villa on penalties in the semi. They have appointed former Croatia Nationa Team coach Slaven Bilic as manager and he brings a wealth of experience having managed at both West Ham and Besiktas in the past. OK, his most recent spell in Saudia Abia in charge of Al-Ittihad didn’t go too well but he should be more than capable of getting West Brom into playoff contention; even after some high profile departures. Last seasons strikers Rodriguez & Rondon have left in big-money transfers, but they have spent well bringing in Charlie Austin from Southampton

 

3rd Stoke City

Stoke’s best close-season acquisition might actually be manager Nathan Jones who guided Luton Town to back to back promotions, including the League One title last season. Stoke failed to adjust to the drop last year but now they know what to expect and thanks to the parachute payments they still have what looks like a premier league squad which includes Jack Butland, one of Englands best goalkeepers, Welsh International midfielder Joe Allen & Nigerian star Oghenekaro Etebo. Add to this solid signings in Tommy Smith & Liam Lindsay and you have a squad which should challenge for the title.

 

4th Fulham

Fulham spent big after being promoted in 2017-8 and saw it backfire big style. However, despite the big-money sale of Ryan Sessegnon new manager Scott Parker still has a strong squad and they did look a bit better towards the season end despite being relegated by early April.

If they haven’t lost too much confidence then a squad which includes the likes of Tom Cairney, Aleksandar Mitrovic, both key members of the 2017-18 promotion-winning side should be pushing for automatic promotion. By adding players who have been there and done it before in the Ivan Cavaleiro and Anthony Knockaert they are signalling their intent to bounce straight back.

 

Playoff Candidates

 

5th Cardiff City

With Neil Warnock at the helm, you have got to respect Cardiff’s chances of challenging for an instant return to the Premier League. Last season showed they are capable of battling and the lack of class which cost them last season is less of an issue at this level. They have lost their main striker in Zohore, but thanks to their parachute payment they have been able to splash out on some quality Championship level players and who knows Robert Glatzel could be a star in the making. He looked good in the Bundesliga second tier playing for FC Heidenheim and if he adjusts to English football who knows.

 

6th Bristol City

Bristol City have quietly been building a solid side under Lee Johnson: a meticulous student of the game yet somebody with the personality to manage well upward as well as downward. They drove a hard bargain on the sale of both Adam Webster & Lloyd Kelly – netting around £33m, and then used the bulk of the proceeds on six solid signings, not only buying replacements for both from Chelsea but also adding some quality in midfield.  They look pretty much the complete package and in previous seasons could arguably be one of the title favourites. A playoff place looks well within reach.

 

7th Brentford

The Bees suffered from losing manager Dean Smith early in the season last year, and he went on to take Villa up. Still, Thomas Frank has slotted into the job quite well and like Bristol City have sold a few stars for big money and reinvested wisely. If some of their overseas acquisitions fit into the Championship way of life then 7th should be the baseline for this side which still had a wealth of talent coming through from Smiths years in charge. We will be watching for the arrival of Turkish under 19 International striker Halil Dervişoğlu with some interest – He hit 21 goals in 26 games with Sparta Rotterdam’s youth team which is one of Hollands finest. He scored 12 in his first senior season and could be a star in the making.

 

8th Derby County

Derby lost manager Frank Lampard, but have a competent replacement in Phillipe Cocu (a former Dutch national team manager) and £4m in the bank as compensation so things are not that bad. Given Cocu led PSV to the Eredivisie title three times this could actually be a short term upgrade at the position given Lampard’s inexperience.

They have lost a few of last seasons loanees but did add Bielikfrom Arsenal, who should shore up the defence and of course, a certain Wayne Rooney has returned from America to join the fight for promotion. Frank taking Mason Mount back to Chelsea is a big blow and Derby don’t really look to have improved the squad as much as the teams above hence they might just miss out on the playoffs.

 

9th Swansea City

Swansea have not had a great close season – losing their manager and then selling off their strike force. Admittedly getting over £35m in transfer fees has softened the blow and the sales might pave the way for their record signing Borja to return from Spain to lead the line. Hard to predict how they will perform and a lot could hinge on January given their frugality in the transfer market. If they are thereabouts that £35m could come in handy.  They might just figure in the playoff hunt.

 

Mid Table teams

10th Nottingham Forest

The debacle regarding Martin O’Neils sacking is a cause for concern going into the new season and incumbent manager Sam Lamouchi will know his days will be numbered if he doesn’t perform. Forest have lost Ben Osbourne, and although they have spent the transfer money quite well, they don’t look to have replaced him and appear to be going for the hard to beat look this season. This will keep them safe but you rarely win promotion solely on having a strong defensive structure. They have the look of a mid-table team to us.

11th Preston North End

When you sell probably your best player in Callum Robinson, and your main transfer activity involves sign a couple of veteran free transfers then you shouldn’t expect too much.

12th Sheffield Wednesday

Wednesday have sailed close to the wind as far as the Financial Fair Play rules are concerned and this has led to little in the way for squad strengthening. Still, the only loss of note is Lucas Joao and they are too good to go down. We have pegged them for the same position as last season.

13th Blackburn Rovers

The Venkys have enough money to ensure the club stay out of financial woes, but are probably not prepared to bankroll a serious promotion push this year despite sanctioning the purchase of Sam Gallagher. Tony Mowbray is a solid manager at this level and he will no doubt fancy Rovers chances, but they look a year away from getting into the top ten.

14th Barnsley

Newly promoted Barnsley should be better able to handle the Championship this year despite losing last seasons defensive stalwarts Liam Lindsay and Ethan Pinnock. Still, the money raised has been ploughed back into the squad and they have picked up players who are proven at this level and might have picked up a bargain in Patrick Schmidt who performed well in the Austrian Bundesliga last season hitting 8 goals in his last 17 games.  Staying up is probably their ambition for 2019-20 and we think they will do that comfortably.

 

15th Middlesbrough

Jonathan Woodgate is taking on his first managerial role and its a tough one with little in the way of squad additions and Aiden Flint leaving for divisional rivals Cardiff. A season of learning and consolidation looks in order

 

16th Huddersfield Town

Chairman Dean Hoyle has left after eleven seasons in which the club’s fortunes changed dramatically going from League One also-rans to tie Premier League. Their two-year stint at the top table ended last season and with it a number of their better players. Ok, they splashed out Isaac Mbenza who they had on loan last season. However, he managed a solitary goal in his 20 appearances and although a young player with great potential We cant see him propelling the Terriers into the playoffs. They may even struggle to stay up but we have pegged them for mid-table obscurity.

 

17th Birmingham City

Birmingham fell foul of the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules last season, and it cost them 9 points – not that it made much difference to their finishing position. They have sold their better forward players to ensure they are better positioned financially and did buy the experienced Croatian Ivan Šunjić with some of the proceeds however mid-table looks their most likely finishing position.

Looking Over Their Shoulders

 

18th Reading

A few years of poor decision making in the transfer market has left Reading sailing close to the FFP limit and this has led to a wholesale change of squad. They have bought a couple of good players but with all the changes we feel this will be a consolidation season, and if things go wrong they could flirt with the relegation zone.

 

19th Queens Park Rangers

Another team who are suffering from the overspending of the past and this year sees the work on restructuring this continue. Sales amounted to around £7.5 m but the only incoming players were free transfers or loanees. They should stay up but barring a miracle they wont figure in the promotion mix.

 

20th Luton Town

Luton were League One title winners last season having been promoted the season before and of course, they were playing Non-League Football not that long ago. It has been a meteoric rise and we think they will view this season as one for stabilising and consolidating. They have broken their transfer records this season receiving a record £6m plus for Right Back James Justin and sold versatile defender Jack Stacey too for over £4m. They then went out and broke their own transfer record, buying Croatian Goalkeeper Simon Sluga for around £1.5m. They may need him given the departures. Luton should stay up but it could be a long hard season.

 

21st Hull City

 

New manager Grant McCann has inherited a club who seem to have lost their ambition of late. A few decent squad players have left on free transfers over the summer and no funds have been raised. This has led to little in the way for squad strengthening and this apathy may lead to a season of struggle.

 

22nd Millwall

Millwall has a tiny budget and did well to stay up last season, buoyed by their Cup run which saw them reach the FA Cup Quarter Finals. They were aided last year by Bolton’s financial woes and they might not be so lucky this year.

 

23rd Wigan Athletic

Wigan had a bit of a slump towards the end of last season but fortunately, they had garnered enough points early on to ensure they didn’t slip into relegation trouble. Manager Paul Cook is proven at League One & Two levels but might be out of his depth in the Championship. They have spent a lot in the summer for a club on their budget and if they don’t gel then it could be a long hard winter.

 

24th Charlton Athletic

Charlton had a great 2018-19 season sneaking into the playoffs and then beating Sunderland in the League One Play-Off Final. The problem is they may have gone up a season too soon. They have a small squad and the loss of near ever-present Dutch defender Anfernee Dijksteel will hurt. With no money available to strengthen the squad they will have to rely on youth players stepping up when the inevitable injuries arrive, and this is not easy in the Championship. They might start well but the winter could be hard.