The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed back in 2015 in a way to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions took another backwards step when the main European partners UK, France and Germany expressed concerns regarding the move to by the Iranians to roll back key parts of the 2015 deal in response to deepening US sanctions. However, given that the issue was never about Iran complying with the agreement and more about Donald Trump wanting to wield more influence in the region this is concerning.
Is President Trump playing Political Chess?
Image Credit: rawf8/ Shutterstock
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the global nuclear watchdog, has repeatedly given Tehran a clean bill of health indicating that Iran has been living up to its part of the bargain, and the main European parties, along with Russia and China have been happy with things. However, the issue is that the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement last year are not happy with it. They think that the terms negotiated with their predecessors the Obama administration was not tough enough and they want to renegotiate it on their terms.
Thus a working agreement which had halted any risk of a new nuclear power developing in the Middle East has been sabotaged by what looks like political posturing. The net result of America’s sanctions has been plunging Iran’s economy into a deep recession, quadrupling its annual inflation rate and forcing the value of its currency to record lows. All for – complying fully with an internationally recognised agreement! The people who are suffering here are the ordinary citizens and in particular the younger generations – the ones most at risk of radicalisation.
Yes, Iran’s foreign policy is an issue and we agree with many of the issues raised by the Secretary of State – however, are they any worse than Saudi Arabia’s actions a country with an appalling human rights record and one who thinks it’s ok to assassinate a journalist on foreign soil, and who even the US Senate view as protagonists in the war in Yemen. Of course with Billions in US arms sales involved President Trump seems happy to turn a blind eye. If you are going to impose your rules in the Middle East then make it apply to all and not just one.
Fortunately, the EU seems keen to find a solution expressing regret about the renewed US sanctions and saying they were “determined to continue pursuing efforts to enable the continuation of legitimate trade with Iran”. The other countries who are a party to the accord have indicated they will set up a “special purpose vehicle” that would essentially allow goods to be bartered between Iranian and foreign companies without direct financial transactions, known as Instex. However, to date, there is no firm explanation as to how this would work or whether the US would object.
“We remain fully committed to the full implementation of the #JCPOA, of the nuclear deal. It’s a matter of security for us and for the entire world” @FedericaMog pic.twitter.com/eklZZdmS6d
— European External Action Service – EEAS 🇪🇺 (@eu_eeas) May 9, 2019
Currently, the main sanctions involve oil and financial services but the latest sanctions would extend this to Industrial Metals which account for 10% of Iran’s exports.
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