The battle to become Venezuala’s “only President” has now entered the dialogue phase again with Nicolás Maduro agreeing to meet with Juan Guaidó in Barbados to discuss a six-point agenda which will hopefully resolve the political crisis which is in danger of tearing the country apart. An earlier meeting in May of this year in Oslo ended with no progress, so hopefully, the sunnier climes of the Windward Islands will result in a warmer atmosphere when the discussions take place.
The Main Issue
Although the above agenda is not public yet Juan Guaidó who is technically the opposition – depending on which side of the fence you are on has two main proposals:
- a transitional government
- free elections monitored by international observers
The crisis erupted in January when Mr Guaidó invoked the constitution and declared himself interim president, on the basis that the 2018 elections which had returned Mr Maduro to office for a second term had been rigged. A not particularly far fetched assumption given Mr Maduro’s track record and subsequent actions.
The Big Issue
The Big issue here is that this is becoming a surrogate superpower clash with The Trump Administration backing and recognising (along with 50 other countries) Juan Guaidó as President and to stoke the flames he has hinted at military intervention. President Mr Maduro may not have the support of the people but he has the military on his side and more importantly Russia who are the countries main Arms supplier, China who are major lenders and buyers of their Oil and Cuba who provide intelligence services in exchange for cheap oil.
Russia, in particular, will be reluctant to see their main ally in the region deposed, while Cuba will suffer a major economic shock if its cheap fuel tap is turned off. China is less exposed politically but will need to ensure its loans are secure.
Overall this remains a small but still significant threat to world peace and hopefully, Mr Maduro will resort to trying to win a fair election so providing to the world he is legitimate rather than terrorising his own people to cling onto power as assessed by the UN in its latest report
People rally in support of EU’s decision to recognize Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s Interim President.
Editorial credit: Ruben Alfonzo / Shutterstock.com
