EFL League One (tier 3) is underway and as Sunderland will attest it’s a tricky league to get out of and also one of the hardest to predict. Derby County who will be playing at this level for the first time since the mid-1980s will be hoping their fall from grace is short-lived. They are now out of administration and somehow have avoided any points penalty. They are the bookie’s favourites but will it pan out that way? Well, they have added a lot of experience to the squad picking up a number of Championship players on free transfers.
The other relegated sides Barnsley & Peterborough will also be looking to return and of course, the likes of Ipswitch Town & Sheffield Wednesday will both point to their long traditions and sizable followings.
They are all in with a chance and it looks set to be another interesting and hard-fought season. Anyway here is how we see it panning out…
EFL League One Winners
We could make a case for several teams, but we are plumping for Sheffield Wednesday. They adjusted well to their new surroundings last season following their relegation and were a little unlucky in the playoffs. They have added some depth in defence in the transfer market and although there were no major moves the squad was already good enough to compete at this level. We don’t expect them to run away with it but they should just edge it.
Automatic Promotion
This will be Ipswich Towns’ fourth season in League One which is surprising given they were playing in Europe as recently as 2002-03. They have acquired new investors and a promising manager and have shown their ambition in the transfer market. Recent arrivals Leif Davies & Marcus Harkness look to be the final pieces of the jigsaw and we expect them to push Shef Wed close.
Playoff Contenders
We could make a case for at least 10 teams to figure in these positions, however, we expect that Bolton & Derby will be among them. Last seasons beaten playoff finalists Wycombe will again be there or thereabouts and relegated Peterborough will also be looking to bounce back. Our playoff tip though is Portsmouth who despite a disappointing 2021-2 look to have added the right mix of youth & experience for this campaign. They might also have a bit of money to spend in January thanks to the Marcus Harkness transfer.
How Will the Newly Promoted Teams fare?
Unusually all four promoted teams stayed up last season however we don’t think this is likely to happen again this year. Of the four we think that Forest Green Rovers has the best chance of remaining. They have appointed Ian Burchnall as manager, who showed promise at Notts County. The squad has been upgraded with the addition of Connor Wickham who still has plenty to offer at this level. He was transferred for £9m as recently as 2015! They have also reunited with Reece Brown who they picked up from Huddersfield. They shouldn’t have too many relegation worries.
We expect the other three to be amongst the strugglers. We wouldn’t be too surprised if Bristol Rovers managed to stay up but expect both Exeter City & Port Vale to go back down.
EFL League One Relegation candidates
Cheltenham & Morecambe were both promoted last year and did well enough to stay up. Morecambe only just survived and we think they might be candidates for the wooden spoon this time around. Cheltenham did ok last year but has been quiet in the transfer market. They fill our expected bottom four together with Exeter & Port Vale.
Anyway here is how we see the table finishing…
EFL League One Final Table Prediction
1 Sheffield Wednesday
2 Ipswich Town
3 Bolton Wanderers
4 Wycombe Wanderers
5 Derby County
6 Peterborough United
7 Portsmouth
8 Milton Keynes Dons
9 Plymouth Argyle
10 Charlton Athletic
11 Oxford United
12 Lincoln City
13 Barnsley
14 Forest Green Rovers
15 Shrewsbury Town
16 Accrington Stanley
17 Bristol Rovers
18 Cambridge United
19 Burton Albion
20 Fleetwood Town
21 Port Vale
22 Cheltenham Town
23 Exeter City
24 Morecambe
Playoff Final
Portsmouth beating Derby County
So there we have it, our predictions for 2022-23. Why not check out our most recent EFL League One posts while you are here, or have a go at one of our growing bank of Football Quizzes.
You can check last year’s prediction here.
