This weekend is the last International break of 2018, and what a great year it has been with the new UEFA Nations League changing attitudes towards international matches which outside of the main tournament qualifiers were often regarded as “interruptions to the season”.
Following up on arguably the most entertaining World Cup in recent memory this weekend, the UEFA Nations League takes center stage and the grouping of teams of more matched ability has increased excitement levels for the fans and for those who like a flutter throws up some intriguing betting opportunities. So even if Internationals are not your cup of tea why not add a bit of interest with a modest wager or two. Who knows with the added spice of money at stake and some of the worlds best players on display you might end up a convert.
Players to Watch
International football unlike club football doesn’t involve transfer fees and massive wage bills but instead relies on its home-grown talent and while some nations are blessed with a bevy of household names, some countries are heavily dependable on their “main man”. To add interest, we are suggesting a bet on three players to score. These players are their respective countries marquee players.
Player 1: Gareth Bale
Wales host Denmark on Friday night, knowing that a win will guarantee top spot in their group, and therefore qualify for the European Championships play-offs. Gareth Bale has been declared fit to play, and the team looks far better when he in the squad. He missed the crucial game against Ireland last year when they failed to qualify for the World Cup, but in this must-win game, he’ll be ready.
Match Bet: Gareth Bale to score at any time – Generally available at around 11/8 (Wales vs Denmark).
Player 2: Marko Arnautovic
Austria are trailing Bosnia in their group by 6 points, but almost unbelievably still have their destiny in their own hands. A home win against Bosnia, followed by a win in Northern Ireland will see them take the top spot. West Ham striker Marko Arnautovic is the go-to player for Austria, and he has scored the only goal of their campaign thus far. We expect him to add to that tally on Thursday night.
Match Bet: Marko Arnautovic to score at any time 6/4 (Austria vs Bosnia)
Player 3: Eden Hazard
Belgium has a huge list of quality players, but with Kevin De Bruyne not traveling, and Romelu Lukaku not being 100% fit, then their most likely scorer is captain Eden Hazard. They take on an Iceland side that has been leaking goals for fun, so expect Belgium to get a few goals in this game, and let’s hope that Eden Hazard is at his prolific best.
Match Bet: Eden Hazard to score at any time generally available at even money (Belgium vs Iceland)
Bet Summary: Back them all individually, or as an accumulator backing all three to score is nearly 11/1.
‘The Whipping Boys’
The term ‘whipping boys’, which refers to the team that is going to get tanked in all of their group games, leaving them bottom. However, backing against them is usually not worth the risk unless you like short odds betting for sizable stakes or accumulators. However, one option is to bet on the number of goals they concede.
Match 1: Andorra vs Georgia
Andorra has a population of about 80,000 people, and you have to give them credit managing to put 11 men together that can string a few passes, and heck, even score a goal now and then. However, so far in their group they have lost every game and conceded 2 goals on average in each. Georgia top the group and are a class above the other teams in tier 4 so although they might ease off we doubt it and, we fancy Georgia to score 3+.
Match Bet: Georgia to score 3+ goals at 9/4
Match 2: San Marino vs Moldova
Half the size of Andorra, San Marino are the ultimate minnows of European football. They played their first international game in 1990, and have yet to win a competitive match, and have only avoided defeat three times. Moldova are hardly world beaters, but with their yellow kits, they can look like 70’s Brazil against this lot.
Match Bet: Moldova to score 3+ goals at Even money
Match 3: Romania vs Lithuania
In a group consisting of Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro, Lithuania were pretty much doomed from the start. They have lost their opening four games, conceding 9 goals in the process. Romania hasn’t been overly dangerous themselves, but they scored 2 goals in Lithuania so there’s a good chance they can go one better at home and boost our winnings.
Match Bet: Romania to score 3+ goals at 13/8
Bet Summary: Backing the three whipping boys of their respective groups to concede at least 3 goals as a treble works out at about 16/1.
‘And the winner of the inaugural UEFA Nations League is…’
Finally, although it’s a longer-term bet it is worth looking at who will win the Nations League Trophy next summer. Only the winners of the four League A groups can qualify for the UEFA Nations League finals, and not one team has guaranteed qualification yet, but the likes of Portugal, Belgium, and France are very close. Here are the top 5 favorites to win the tournament, and our verdict.
Team 1: France
France still have some work to do in order to progress, as they will have to avoid defeat to The Netherlands on Friday night to absolutely guarantee they qualify. Even if they do lose that one, they can still advance if the Dutch fail to win in Germany on Monday – so France certainly has one foot in next summer’s tournament. Will they win it though? They are understandably strong favourites, and with their generational line up of players at their peak, like Antoine Griezmann, Ngolo Kante and Raphael Varane, and young players like Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Presnel Kimpembe who are only going to get better. They are justifiable favourites Odds: 5/2
Team 2: Spain
Spain is close to qualifying but needs to beat Croatia, and a loss will likely prevent them from qualifying. We I don’t think this Spain team is as good as recent ones when they were heads and shoulders above the rest and although the squad boasts some world class players in David De Gea, Sergio Ramos, Isco and Thiago, we may not see the best of them until the European Championships in 2020. We don’t think Spain offers value at current prices generally around 3/1
Team 3: Belgium
We think Belgium have a better chance of winning this competition than Spain, but they still have some work to do in order to progress. Belgium will need to get four points from Iceland and Switzerland to advance, which is likely, but not a certainty. They have proved that they can go toe-to-toe with France in the World Cup semi-final and will want revenge if they get the chance. We regard Belgium as being on a on par with the French and right now despite qualification not being certain they offer great value at around 100/30
Team 4: Portugal
Portugal have most of their work done in terms of qualifying, and barring a huge collapse, will qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final next summer. They only need one point in order to progress to the next stage, and they should pick that up away to Italy. Even a defeat there leaves a home game with Poland. Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t featured much, and they appear to be preparing for life with him, but he will no doubt figure especially if they as expected reach the Finals. The Portuguese have shown that they are a force in big tournaments exemplified by the last European Championships and they have beaten France recently. Given they are pretty much assured of qualification and look set to host the Tournament they look the value bet at 8-1 – even if you decide to lay it off after they qualify for a small profit
Team 5: England
The four previously mentioned teams should make up the tournament participants, but England still have a fighting chance of progressing. Given that England reached the semi-finals at the World Cup and have beaten Spain in their own backyard since. This shows that it unwise to write them off and although winning the UEFA Nations League won’t erase the much vaunted 52 years of hurt, it would be a nice building block for Gareth Southgate’s young squad. They need a lot of help just to get there though and although the 12-1 odds may look attractive to some, we will be passing on this. As for the rest – well you can forget them.
